Common sense from an uncommon mind
Saturday, March 19, 2011
When will we learn, world's policeman we shouldn't be!
Okay, Now the United Nations, Italy, the French, the English, even some arab countries want to get involved in LIBIA! It's only a matter of time friends, until Uncle Sam will be shouldering some part of this next load!
How long will it take us to learn that other countries and their people have to choose their own way? Perhaps we will look back at the days of the Soviet Union and wistfully say....we miss them...Not that we like their government, but it was one target to hate. When it was gone all the old hatreds came back and this one remembered that his great grandfather was wronged by somebody or other and that had to be avenged ...Well you know the rest. I say: If they want to fight and war with each other, good for them. I grow tired of all this world policeman stuff.
Same goes for the rest of the Middle East, South America, Asia, whatever. It’s time to start thinking about what would happen if we didn’t step into these hornet nest. What indeed? Like the suicidal person threatening to kill him/herself if we don’t do this or that. Say ‘go ahead’ as long as you don’t harm anyone else, do it! How many countries would really be ready to just have at it without The United States or some other sovereign power ‘keeping them from war’ would really go to war?
Maybe a few would try it. Maybe more than a few, but eventually they would have to stop. No, our position should be to act as good allies and react to actions against our allies with the withering force of our overwhelming armed forces to make attacking our allies a prospect too terrible to imagine.
As to the tribal wars like in the Far-East…our military is designed to defeat a nation-state, with defineable borders, infrastructure, cities and capitols, possessions that could be destroyed. War against an idea or tribal groups is indefensible. They have no fixed asset only a fixed idea. An idea is impossible to defeat with a gun. You can only suppress it for a time.
It will always come back to bite you. When you aren’t looking.
We would be better served by taking the position that we will be good reliable allies, protecting our friends and being willing to go any distance to do that. If we did that we would find it a lot easier.
Thursday, March 17, 2011
Nuclear power and Poor Japan
Nuclear power:
Poor Japan! I mean that sincerely. Nobody should have to be in that situation. It isn’t their fault that Mother Nature rose up and ’bitch slapped’ them….It IS their fault that they have embraced an administration supporting nuclear power for a disproportionate part of their total energy needs.
The Issue as I see it is not that the plants were damaged by ‘the biggest quake to hit Japan in recorded times” but rather that the administration has assured the lemming like population that they could handle ANY SITUATION. And they believed it! Now the fate of a quarter million people appears to be riding on the suicidal efforts of fifty or so brave men. God bless them!
Nuclear power is a cheap power source AS LONG AS NOTHING LIKE THIS HAPPENS. My good friend up North disagrees with me and thinks we should look at the risk by degree. I think that is dangerous, the most technologically advanced machine ever made by mankind, back-up on back-up on back-up systems, the best minds in the world, a decade to develop, think about it. 5 shuttles built, 2 destroyed . Compare that to the fact that no new nuclear plant has been built for 15 years and none even started for 25! How old and decrepit is that technology now! Hell, we were still using dial phones (some of us) when we were signing on to this nightmare.
I was in sixth grade when we were happily carted off in our nice yellow school bus from Fishkill to Indian Point Number One to see the thing in person…kids, I am 61 years old! That should tell you a little of the risk we are accepting for cheap ( did I really say CHEAP ? )power. Only a matter of time folks, only a matter of time.
Okay then, now that I have kvetched about the nuclear plant issue you rightfully ask: So Dave what do we do? I agree, it is only fair to take a stab at it!
One.: Start by understanding that our pols want to stay in office more than anything else, they are afraid of saying what must be said for fear of being thrown out. I think this is a very opportune time for a bit of courage.
Budget time has come to all of us. The ‘kick the can down the road” approach is about over and we all know it. I think it is time to confront this devil and say what has to be said. If we want to continue our lifestyles we HAVE TO EMBRACE THE THOUGHT that we can’t expect one, two, or even three sources of power will fulfill our needs. Unless we want to start living by candle light we need to go after every source of energy, average the cost, and move on….did you catch the “average’ reference?
How do you do that with so many suppliers? How do you make the cost of energy consistent throughout the country given the hydro power availability compared with areas that have coal (and by the way THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS ‘CLEAN COAL’), TO AREAS THAT HAVE WIND FARM SITES. The list goes on.
The answer is simple. Too simple. You do a zero sum computation and here is how it would work. You might start by State or region first. To do the entire country would be daunting at best perhaps impossible (at first!).
Determine the kilowatt or therm cost for every provider, geo, hydro, wind, coal, gas, etc. etc. Determine the total energy you need to plan for. Divide one by the other and you will come to some constant number as an average cost per unit of energy. That number is the amount you and I and industry etc. pay by metered usage.
I know, I know. How do you administer and assign the cost numbers? I didn’t say this was going to be easy did I?
We have an energy Czar already, yes? We have an energy dept. yes? Set them the task of evaluating and AUDITING costs vs. profit etc. Yes you’ll have to set a reasonable profit norm for this to work, again NOT EASY. Billing would be through the central energy agency/ whatever you call it, office of the energy Czar if you like with meter readings done as before. We send a check based on energy usage, the Czar’s office disperses the funds per the cost/profit calculations we spoke about earlier.
In this way the wind/solar/geo energy that is disproportionately expensive and disproportionately desirable to (for now cheaper) coal/gas/oil/fossil fuel would be made affordable. As we would be diversifying if any system failed, or came online adjustments could be made co the cost of energy. Wouldn’t that be nice?
I think that if you trust us we will be reasonable and receptive to a new approach to this issue that will only get worse. This is only one idea but it is new and perhaps workable…
Think about it. Those of us that use electricity’s. oil, vs. wind energy could expect to pay the same rate per unit of energy. We could expect to control our use by re-insulating, upgrading our systems, changing how we live a bit, I.e. turn off the TV. at night, buy a new instant on hot water heater etc.
Seems common sense to me…..db
Wednesday, March 16, 2011
Bandwagon
http://www.dacharts.com/articles/_bandwagon.htm
“The Bandwagon/MOB theory”
Okay then, This link is very telling to me….and it explains a lot about why things, not JUST the stock market, work the way they do.
The writer makes the point out that moves in the market are the result of planning by powerful people to entice us the little people into investing without THINKING! They know that we, again ‘the little people’ want to be as rich and powerful as they, ‘the powerful people’. They know that the majority will jump on the wagon so as not to be left at the station when the gravy train pulls out.
The are right! We see them supposedly racing toward a position all the while hoping there is room for us as well. We jump on the ‘bandwagon’ and gleefully hold onto the idea that we too will soon be richer that before. This causes us to be blind to reality!
The same thing happened in the run up to the ‘29 crash. People ran toward the market, buying on margin without regard to the possibility of a fall in the market causing a margin call..oops!
The same thing happened in the ‘dot-com’ bubble run up. How many of us know a millionaire com hundred-aire after that mess? Same with the recent housing disaster. Who cared what we paid for that house? We all knew that we could sell it for even more in short order. We all know how smart that was.
Yes, the writer is correct, about as lot of things. Most correct that we don’t learn from our mistakes. Our collective memory is very very short. We will continue to do it ‘to ourselves’ until we crash again and swear to God we’ve learned THIS TIME.
Sure we did. ‘Only a matter of time until we all troop off the short end of the bridge because the big guys are all heading that way!’ Wake up sisters and brothers! Someday, someday, we’ll all wish we had used our heads, I promise you!
“The Bandwagon/MOB theory”
Okay then, This link is very telling to me….and it explains a lot about why things, not JUST the stock market, work the way they do.
The writer makes the point out that moves in the market are the result of planning by powerful people to entice us the little people into investing without THINKING! They know that we, again ‘the little people’ want to be as rich and powerful as they, ‘the powerful people’. They know that the majority will jump on the wagon so as not to be left at the station when the gravy train pulls out.
The are right! We see them supposedly racing toward a position all the while hoping there is room for us as well. We jump on the ‘bandwagon’ and gleefully hold onto the idea that we too will soon be richer that before. This causes us to be blind to reality!
The same thing happened in the run up to the ‘29 crash. People ran toward the market, buying on margin without regard to the possibility of a fall in the market causing a margin call..oops!
The same thing happened in the ‘dot-com’ bubble run up. How many of us know a millionaire com hundred-aire after that mess? Same with the recent housing disaster. Who cared what we paid for that house? We all knew that we could sell it for even more in short order. We all know how smart that was.
Yes, the writer is correct, about as lot of things. Most correct that we don’t learn from our mistakes. Our collective memory is very very short. We will continue to do it ‘to ourselves’ until we crash again and swear to God we’ve learned THIS TIME.
Sure we did. ‘Only a matter of time until we all troop off the short end of the bridge because the big guys are all heading that way!’ Wake up sisters and brothers! Someday, someday, we’ll all wish we had used our heads, I promise you!
Wednesday, March 9, 2011
Pine Plains complaints
Pine Plains, New York:
1450 residents spent at least a day in the cold and dark aftermath of the latest snow/ice storm. I read in the Poughkeepsie Journal how people complained that ‘in this day, 2010, there is no excuse for being without power for any length of time….okay, point taken….
Then a genius commentator lambasted the poor cool folks wanting their power back as fools that ‘if they were really serious, would just go right out and buy a generator”
Common sense should let you know fella that not everyone can afford a generator and the necessary installation electrician that can cost +$500 in addition to the minimum $700 to buy a reliable genset….all this for a one or two times per year event.
Common sense tells us ‘not all of us have the same abilities and resources, but we all have the same needs’ Maybe this guy could cut these people a little slack……sign me ‘sitting in my comfy house with my generator cooking along outside’
Monday, March 7, 2011
nabobs of negativism
Alright then, Common Sense it is……
Why things are the way they are.
Because they should be….that’s why my friend, they should be. Courage to say the truth is lacking in our ‘elected officials’. I don’t think they give us enough credit….We all know that the thing elected officials want more than anything else is to remain (elected ) officials!
We also know they understand that to lead is dangerous. Leaders must be willing to be wrong to won their mistakes and learn from them. Leadership is a dangerous thing, but in these times it is exactly what we need!
Okay, I understand that there must be a million expert bloggers out there ready to explain what we should be doing in almost any situation. Not me. I don’t pretend to be that smart. But I do see some things from time to time that make ‘Common Sense’ to me.
This is where I will be going. I hope you will read my ramblings as I mean them…Honest opinion…don’t like it, okay but I might not like it as well. One thing is for sure, I won’t lie or posture here…Like Jack Webb would say, “ just the truth “.
Why things are the way they are.
Because they should be….that’s why my friend, they should be. Courage to say the truth is lacking in our ‘elected officials’. I don’t think they give us enough credit….We all know that the thing elected officials want more than anything else is to remain (elected ) officials!
We also know they understand that to lead is dangerous. Leaders must be willing to be wrong to won their mistakes and learn from them. Leadership is a dangerous thing, but in these times it is exactly what we need!
Okay, I understand that there must be a million expert bloggers out there ready to explain what we should be doing in almost any situation. Not me. I don’t pretend to be that smart. But I do see some things from time to time that make ‘Common Sense’ to me.
This is where I will be going. I hope you will read my ramblings as I mean them…Honest opinion…don’t like it, okay but I might not like it as well. One thing is for sure, I won’t lie or posture here…Like Jack Webb would say, “ just the truth “.
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